Prognosis and prognostic research validating a prognostic model
We performed a systematic literature search in both Pubmed and Embase up to September 2010.Selection criteria included primary publications of indices developed for stable COPD patients, that predict future outcome by a multidimensional scoring system, developed for and validated with COPD patients only.(2009) Patient outcome after traumatic brain injury in high-, middle- and low-income countries: analysis of data on 8927 patients in 46 countries. doi: 10.1093/ije/dyn189Steyerberg EW, Borsboom GJ, van Houwelingen HC, Eijkemans MJ, Habbema JD (2004) Validation and updating of predictive logistic regression models: a study on sample size and shrinkage. doi: 10.1002/sim.1844Janssen KJ, Moons KG, Kalkman CJ, Grobbee DE, Vergouwe Y (2008) Updating methods improved the performance of a clinical prediction model in new patients. doi: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.20Hlatky MA, Greenland P, Arnett DK, Ballantyne CM, Criqui MH, et al.(2009) Criteria for evaluation of novel markers of cardiovascular risk: a scientific statement from the American Heart Association. doi: 10.1161/circulationaha.109.192278Melander O, Newton-Cheh C, Almgren P, Hedblad B, Berglund G, et al.PROGRESS: A series of five papers, linked below, were published in 20 on the essentials of the different types of prognostic studies, and a recommendation for the registration and sharing of protocols of prognostic studies.GRADE: The GRADE Working Group have developed recommendations for prognostic evidence and provide a practical and useful approach to determining confidence in estimates of prognosis in broad populations.CHARMS: The CHARMS checklist is a template and checklist for designing the review, for data extraction and critical appraisal in systematic reviews of risk prediction modeling studies.TRIPOD: The TRIPOD statement a set of evidence-based reporting guidelines for studies developing, validating, or updating (diagnostic and prognostic) risk prediction models.
(2008) Predicting outcome after traumatic brain injury: development and international validation of prognostic scores based on admission characteristics. De Silva MJ, Roberts I, Perel P, Edwards P, Kenward MG, et al.
(2011) Large between-center differences in outcome after moderate and severe traumatic brain injury in the international mission on prognosis and clinical trial design in traumatic brain injury (IMPACT) study. doi: 10.1227/neu.0b013e318209333b Sterne JAC, White IR, Carlin JB, Spratt M, Royston P, et al. (2011) Comparison of stratified primary care management for low back pain with current best practice (STar T Back): a randomised controlled trial. doi: 10.1016/s0140-6736(11)60937-9Feldman M, Stanford R, Catcheside A, Stotter A (2002) The use of a prognostic table to aid decision making on adjuvant therapy for women with early breast cancer. doi: 10.1053/ejso.2002.1300Henriksson M, Palmer S, Chen R, Damant J, Fitzpatrick NK, et al.
(2009) Multiple imputation for missing data in epidemiological and clinical research: potential and pitfalls. doi: 10.1136/bmj.b2393Sauerbrei W, Royston P, Binder H (2007) Selection of important variables and determination of functional form for continuous predictors in multivariable model building. doi: 10.1002/sim.3148Schumacher M, Hollander N, Schwarzer G, Sauerbrei W (2006) Prognostic factor studies. (2010) Assessing the cost effectiveness of using prognostic biomarkers with decision models: case study in prioritising patients waiting for coronary artery surgery. doi: 10.1136/bmj.b5606Uijl SG, Leijten FS, Arends JB, Parra J, van Huffelen AC, et al.
(2008) Predicting outcome after traumatic brain injury: practical prognostic models based on large cohort of international patients. doi: 10.1136/bmj.39461.643438.25Pencina MJ, D'Agostino RB Sr, D'Agostino RB Jr, Vasan RS (2008) Evaluating the added predictive ability of a new marker: from area under the ROC curve to reclassification and beyond. doi: 10.1002/sim.2976Steyerberg EW, Vickers AJ, Cook NR, Gerds T, Gonen M, et al.
(2010) Assessing the performance of prediction models: a framework for traditional and novel measures. doi: 10.1097/ede.0b013e3181c30fb2Vickers AJ, Cronin AM (2010) Traditional statistical methods for evaluating prediction models are uninformative as to clinical value: towards a decision analytic framework. doi: 10.1053/j.seminoncol.20Leushuis E, van der Steeg JW, Steures P, Bossuyt PM, Eijkemans MJ, et al.
(2009) Prediction models in reproductive medicine: a critical appraisal. doi: 10.1093/humupd/dmp013Minne L, Ludikhuize J, de Jonge E, de Rooij S, Abu-Hanna A (2011) Prognostic models for predicting mortality in elderly ICU patients: a systematic review. doi: 10.1007/s00134-011-2265-6Linton SJ, Hallden K (1998) Can we screen for problematic back pain?